BAYESIAN REASONING

Written By Duane Nelson


2 IDEAS FROM ME

  • Bayesian reasoning reflects life’s journey—every experience reshapes our understanding. Just as beliefs evolve with new evidence, our spiritual path deepens through awareness and openness. Wisdom is not fixed but refined through reflection and growth. By embracing uncertainty with curiosity and experimentation, we awaken to truth, resilience, and limitless transformation.

  • Living your best life requires Bayesian reasoning and a love of learning to overcome ignorance and inherited conditioning biases.

2 QUOTES FROM SAGES

  • “The weight of evidence for an extraordinary claim must be proportioned to its strangeness.” — Pierre-Simon Laplace (early pioneer of Bayesian probability)

  • “Probability is orderly opinion, and inference from data is nothing other than the revision of such opinion in the light of fresh evidence.” — Harold Jeffreys (Bayesian perspective on learning from data)

1 QUESTION FOR YOU TO EXPLORE

  • When was the last time you reality-checked your beliefs and updated your worldview using Bayesian Reasoning? It’s as easy as asking the right question using ChatGPT. For example, Analyze the truth claime of “insert your religious truth claim here” using Bayesian reasoning.

Namaste,

Duane Nelson

Duane Nelson

Ultrajourney Insight is an Anacortes Washington-based non-profit organization providing mindfulness & well-being services designed to ignite the adventure of a lifetime. The founder, Duane Nelson, is a writer, speaker, and teacher with four decades of parenting, wilderness, & international technology leadership. His professional insights come from chemical engineering and automation leadership at Philips, Intel, and Amazon. His adventure insights flow from ultramarathons, mountaineering, canyoneering, and adventure racing in Nepal, Alaska, Colorado, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, Mexico, British Columbia and Alberta.

https://ultrajourneyinsight.org
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